Bitcoin peeps

How's all that green looking in the portfolio? 

We are back up to well over $13k today (followed by a slight dip to $12k just now, but the rocket is just taking a breather to refuel) - up 50% in the last week. Up 350% in the last few months. 

If everyone had bought when I was telling to people to buy the bear market when the fear was palpable a few months ago when the price was in the $3000s, a LOT of money would have been made...

Just link me to the post when you told people to buy Stru...

My recollection when asking "what's going to happen" was there was a lot of equivocal statements and people saying "it could be" and "it may be"...

Generally when there is a rise or fall in something, someone on rof will claim absolute prediction and advice, and it never quite matches memory.  I thought I'd try and see if my memory is wrong.

 

I wouldn't even know how to buy Bitcoin, even if you told us to go ahead and do it...

Doggers, your memory accords with mine.  Stru is obviously channelling Hughey.*

 

*tho there was a 23 year old on dragons den the other night who apparently made 2mio from piling in to the facebook float

It's one thing to advise on when to buy, but what is your advice on when to sell?

Hahaha, if I knew that I wouldn't have to work and I wouldn't be posting here. 

In general I would say that you should have a profit target and stick to it no matter what. It's MUCH easier to say than to do...

I mean the reason (among others) that there aren't more Bitcoin billionaires is because a lot of the guys who bought it for pennies or dollars (or mined it cheap) in like 2011 sold when it hit $50 or $100 or $500 - and literally made like 10,000% profits or more - but no matter how well you did out of that, it's incredibly hard emotionally after that to see it go to 1000, then 10k, and then 20k and so on..even though in theory those guys shouldn't car e- they made a huge profit and probably set themselves up for life or at least paid off their mortgages and student loans etc and hit their target. But it's HARD.

So greed means most people hold on long after they should have sold...

But you don't advise people to buy bitcoin in that thread at all!.

In fact, you call it "bitcoin bingo" and advise people to buy other currencies..

Just humour me and show me where you advise people to buy bitcoin, cos I very much thought your stance was it was doomed because of the platform it used and horrible for other reasons, but other currencies were good.

 

 

I bought in at the perfect time just before it surged.... Ten pounds' worth... Doh! I won't sell in the foreseeable future however, not unless it has multiplied in value by 100 times or something. The logic being I have almost nothing to lose but am exposed to the upside if something crazy happens in the next few decades.

Ouch. Ethereum down quite a bit this morning.

Both BTC and ETH. 

Usual volatility. In this case because the Fed Chair made comments critical of Facebook's Libra in Congressional hearings. 

 

So you have no exit strategy to realise the value of your trade?

You're waiting for a gut feeling?

You mean me? I don't trade the large majority of my Bitcoin and Ethereum (mostly Ethereum in my case). They are long term holds. I have a much smaller amount of BTC/ETH which I trade actively but not against fiat - usually against other cryptocurrencies, and there I have very specific entry and exit strategies and much shorter timelines (days to weeks) for a trade. 

I do struandirk!

I'm always interested in hearing about exits as much as entries (ooh er) as, quite honestly, I'm rubbish at exits almost always close my limited trading too early.

And what happens when your bitcoin vanishes in the next Quadriga CX event?

Fred - I don't use cloud wallets as much as possible, using hard wallets with suitable counter measures.  

Yes. "Not your keys, not your coins". Only stuff that's being actively traded is on exchange

So Stru... you are now pro bitcoin?

What are the predictions?  Are you advising people to buy it?

 

I've always been pro-Bitcoin and continue to be so. I thought, and continue to think that Ethereum is a better bet and I have much more of an affinity for it, but it has a different purpose and different use cases, and can coexist well with Bitcoin. 

My prediction is that the crypto market as a whole hit bottom towards the end of last year/early this year (when Bitcoin hit $3k and Ethereum hit $80) and since then the tide has turned and we are in the very early stages of a new bull market - probably likely to peak in late 2020 or 2021 (when the effects of Bitcoin's supply halvening of 50% in 2020 and Ethereum's major upgrades in 2020/21 are felt). 

This is an entirely normal pattern and will be like the 4th or 5th full boom and bust market cycle for Bitcoin since like 2009. 

And yes, I do think people should buy it (and Ethereum) as long as they are aware that crypto is an extremely volatile and unpredictable investment that is largely unregulated, and the potential high returns are matched by extremely high risks so they should only put in money that they can afford to completely write off and lose. However, it is *not* a scam, and there's virtually nothing else out there easily available to retail investors with this level of potential return. 

So you apparently gave this advice

"If everyone had bought when I was telling to people to buy the bear market when the fear was palpable a few months ago when the price was in the $3000s, a LOT of money would have been made..."

Very positive, very definitive (but you haven't linked to this...

and now your advice is

"And yes, I do think people should buy it (and Ethereum) as long as they are aware that crypto is an extremely volatile and unpredictable investment that is largely unregulated, and the potential high returns are matched by extremely high risks so they should only put in money that they can afford to completely write off and lose."

Which reads rather like the disclaimer at the end of any investment decision...

 

And remember people, shares are like underpants! They can go up as well as down!

(stole that from Ben Elton circa man from auntie years sorry).

Bosh, bosh, bosh

LOADSABITCOIN!!!

Shut your mouth and look at my wallet!

Do the playas in Bitcoin, penny shares, gold etc. go quiet when the price goes down because they are all working extra hard to come up with more faultness analysis next time the price goes up? 

All this reminds me of The Gambler by Kenny Rogers. 

It is a truth universally accepted that no one on rof has ever bought high and sold low.

Yes Doggers, I posted both those things. I'm not sure what you're getting at with the quotes though?

OK

You said you had advised people to buy bitcoin

I couldn't remember that and asked for the link

You put a link that didn't seem to relate to bitcoin but all crypto and didn't advise to buy

I then asked whether you were advising people to buy now

You posted, basically, a disclaimer on "buy what you can afford to lose" and "shares can go down and not up"

So I'm thinking you are misremembering your position of advising people to buy.  I am sure you have bought.  I am sure you know what you are talking about.  I'm pretty sure you haven't told others to pile in previously and your post isn't advising that now.

I suppose really... if you are going to be Smug Mcsmugity that we didn't follow your advice, it would help if you gave the advice in the first place.