In macro terms is this the biggest thing the world will ever experience in our lifetimes (the next 50 years) in terms of the cumulative impact on health, the economy, loss of liberty and general freedoms? Assuming this doesn't become something that happens everytime anyone sneezes nothing can top this in the next few decades can it?
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I say yes. On events more generally, 9/11 was our jfk assassination?
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yes (excepting climate change)
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But in the next 50 years surely there is no way climate change will cause this level of utter chaos?!
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No. Way worse is coming. Way way worse.
This is an amuse bouche.
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Like what?
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It's a really selfish thing to say but climate change will only become a factor in the next century I think and then we'll all be long gone
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I disagree, the snowball effect is likely to lead to major upheaval in the next two decades.
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Are you too young for the fall of the Berlin Wall?
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I expect the best thing that’s happened with climate change is this pandemic.
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I was 8 when the Berlin Wall fell so don't remember the significance at the time and also that was change that happened over time. This is a huge life changing event that happened in a matter of days and weeks and has shut down economies and stopped all semblance of normal life for months on end. This is bigger I think in terms of the immediate impact
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Climate change will manifest as a series of events spread over many years with a strong cumulative effect
It will not have the same distilled drama for the entire planet over such a focussed period of time
So I would say this is the biggest thing
The thing about this happening every time someone sneezes ? That is my biggest worry . That we will now have constant pandemics and lockdowns and thus never be free people again
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Climate change is based on fake science by researchers looking for taxpayers handouts
Just sun spots
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I was a babe during Chernobil. Does that count?
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I was in Deutschland when it fell. Have several pieces of it. Good times. Was inevitable more than life changing.
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Well indeed Gaga. Whereas before these (invariably) Chinese/Far Eastern viruses were treated with a degree of scepticism in terms of the harm they could do outside that region now when the next variant of coronavirus comes out will the world immediately impose huge measures etc. It's a majorly depressing prospect if so.
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Massive solar storm sending us back to the middle ages overnight? Also see polarity inversion.
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Heh
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Interesting that non of you note the Iraq war and the sequal that is Syrian war (admittedly without allied troops on the ground). Both have caused a wave of instability across the world.
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would say california is due that mahoosive earthquake soon....
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COME FRIENDLY BOMBS AND FALL ON SLOUGH
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Slough lives matter.
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I think the suddenness will make it feel like a bigger event than climate change. Climate change will probably have larger effects ultimately - but there will be gradual adaptation and so it will not have the same clear and identifiable impact. Quite a good chance that covid ends up feeling like the biggest event of our lives.
But ofc Covid 19 is a tiddler compared to what might still happen if a serious pandemic were to hit. If we could get some sensible people in charge, instead of morons and chancers, they would recognise that actually weve been bloody lucky it turned out to be as mild as it is and recognise we need to think harder about biosecurity. There should be proper mechanisms to isolate outbreaks quickly. It still amazes me that there was no way to shut down the Chinese borders in January. This sort of sloppiness in the face of potentially existential risks is inexcusable. A serious pandemic clearly runs the risk of causing a complete global collapse.
A big cyber event could probably wreck havoc at a similar scale.
And of course nuclear war which tbh is probably more likely now than when we were all frettting sbout it in the 80s, albeit a generalized nuclear exchange Is probably only about the same level of risk.
They are all serious risks but the biggest existential risks however would derive from AI.
In terms of existential risk climate change, however important, is probably about 4th after AI, Nuclear War and Biosecurity. Ofc climate change will interact with and exaccerbate those risks but its not really the most critical issue - despite the fact its currently the most “popular”.
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You should listen to the “end of the world” podcast. It’s class
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Can’t agree wirh CW that a nuclear war is more likely now than in early 80s...
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nah climate change is only a slow creeper now - there will be a flash point where it becomes untenable (a tipping point) and overtakes all other issues
we’re getting there at the moment with the wildfires in aus/cali
wait until florida real estate starts flooding (3 years?)
then lots of coastal europe (5-7 years? Maybe 10?)
then the mass migration
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Here’s a funny (spoiler - actually quite terrifying) article from last year on Florida’s issues:
https://popula.com/2019/04/02/heaven-or-high-water/
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If Trump wins then the climate change battle is lost.
The Comey Barrett confirmation hearings were a bit scary.
I don't really understand climate denial when you don't have skin in the game. Of course oil companies and the Koch brothers engage in climate denial. But why join in when you are not being paid and you aren't just trolling?
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Intersting article chill. Tho across most of the world the changes really are over a 50yr timeline and there will be winners and losers. Still think we should be doing a lot to stop it and it will cause significiant losses but the reality is changes will be gradual.
We certainly need to be spreading those losses over time by making it very clear to people now that other tax payers wont be subsidizing them in 30-50 years time if they are stupid enough to buy property that is at flooding risk. To some extent we would be adapting already but for peoples idiotic and selfish belief that the state will always reacue them from their own folly. This has become ingrained in some parts of the West and is totally unnaffordable (look at Covid hysteria which derives from the same thinking).
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Something I don't understand about climate change denial is, even if you strongly believed it was nonsense, why would you believe that relying on a finite source of energy was in any way sustainable?
I'm sure the logic of bounded v. unbounded outcomes of policy decisions is beyond people most of the time.
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The biggest thing seems to be the number of people who look at what China has done and say “that’s great we should do what they do”. Freedom seems increasingly ephemeral.
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Yes.
But the Great ‘African’ War 2027-2035 will be a close second. Triggered by Nigeria’s invasion of Benin to stop smuggling, and Ghana’s copycat invasion of Togo, it resulted in a complete redrawing of boundaries across Africa and the emergence of the West Africa Union with a population of nearly 400 million. The quick early successes motivated Indonesia to take over Brunei, and Chile’s aggressive expansion in South America. The West looked on aghast and did absolutely nothing except struggle with wave after wave of refugees. The Russians interfered on both sides. The Chinese stayed out of the conflicts and made a lot of money.
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