I understand it's about the backstop, I think the EU might agree to an amendment, provided (!) the Irish agree and approve

That’s never going to happen is it though?

doubt it

the EU position is clear, rational and sensible

ours is incoherent and, to the extent our government has a position capable of being articulated on the Irish border issue (which frankly I doubt), appears to be designed to lead to a hard border in a few years time if no further agreement is reached

Bookies quoting 1/3 on a no deal brexit.

What does that mean, ebitda? I don't understand betting odds.

someone explained betting odds to me once but I already forgot, I think 1/3 means a 75% Chance of no deal

It means of all the options available no deal brexit is the most likely to happen 66% chance of it happening 33% chance of it not happening 

Seems that the gap between the amendments required for MP's to approve the deal and the options on offer form the EU is narrowing so at this rate another couple of slight almost meaningless tweaks and it will be approved.

combined with an art 50 extension maybe, if granted

at this stage, I have no idea

So you reckon we leave with a deal?

see above, no idea

I know everybody would like to avoid no deal, but the integrity of the single market takes precedence over the relationship of the 27 with the UK

What kind of "meaningless tweak" to the backstop do you imagine might be done in order to satisfy (a) the EU and Ireland, whose priority is that the backstop should last for as long as is necessary in order to avoid a hard border; and (b) the headbangers who want the backstop to have an agreed end date (as soon as possible)?

What lady p said . Barnier just confirmed on tv no more negotiations, he will make a full statement this afternoon.

there isn't one, the whole thing is totally fooking pointless. 

it's possible that the irish might blink.  they'd catch a proper cold if we crash out.

Something on the back of an envelope that says we'll use vague endeavours to maybe kind of try if possible subject to other circumstances to use the backstop as little as is reasonably possible in an ideal world.

As the headbangers seem to be moderating to just gentle head tapping and various people are saying they'll offer a legally binding side letter type thing without changing the actual agreement it seems both sides are finally starting to blink.

german news says the irish are unlikely to blink as they know that breaking up the single market (for the stupid fooking british that is) is more harmful than no deal

When you say "blink", do you mean accept the need for a hard border?

No I mean blink as in accept the backstop with a vague commitment that it will be used as little as possible in the hope that other technology comes to light in the next couple of years.

That would be the headbangers blinking then, not the Irish. Backstop means backstop.

what do you mean will be used as little as possible? backstop means the UK stays in the customs union until a solution has been found

Sails , what you are talking about is a side letter. The EU ruled that out and parliament would never accept it in a trillion years.

DD mean that they will try to reduce the time it is in place by not dragging their feet over the relevant arrangements.

Ebit there are several people from the EU quoted this morning as saying that they will not touch the agreement but will consider effectively a side letter or variation.  As I've said before I think a number of MP's want to look like they've done what they can and will roll over as the deadline gets closer on the basis they can tell constituents it's the best they could manage without risking no deal.

I read that the Brexit Secretary was unable to explain this morning what the UK's proposals for an alternative to the backstop are.

We are a total fooking joke. Brexit is an international humiliation. 

Because there are no alternatives

Any one know what the cut off point when we know if we are leaving without a deal, presumably well before 29 March?

No party in this fiasco wants a hard border so it won’t happen... ...some wit or polyglot will come up with suitable wording.

hope you're right, fluffy, but not sure you are

if we do get a deal we will then have the systemic problem of being a v large economy effectively ruled by EU laws over which we have no power or responsibility

but hey, that's the idiocy of Brexit

A hard border can and will happen whether we want it to or not. Not having one requires the parties to agree on something else which removes the need for one, and I can't see that happening in the next eight weeks.

More like 4 weeks 

FFS talk about misinformation!!!! The bookies are quoting 3-1 on a no-deal Brexit you so stop panic mongering! Which means a 25% chance not a 75% chance! 

Odds of a no-deal Brexit have barely risen of late - people clearly still think that there will either be a deal now or Brexit will be postponed until we get a deal. 

It was 1/3 when I checked at 7 AM

There will be no hard border for the simple reason that no party wants it, not one.

Weasley words will follow once the EU believe there is no further traction to be gained by using the issue as a lever doing negotiations.

Fluffy, there will be a hard border if the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland ends up becoming the EU's external customs border.

I hope you're right

my suspicion is that at least some in the DUP would like a hard border and many English Tory Brexit nutters either feel the same way or simply don't care

These MPs are really a shower.  They are now playing stupid party political games which may lead to renewed civil war in Ireland.  And they just don't care.  

Egotistical, ignorant to the point of imbecility, smug, arrogant, monoglot, inexperienced, under-travelled, obstinate, under-educated, incompetent, talentless w*&^nkers the lot of them.  

We urgently need better MPs chosen by a better system.