Alan Duncan resigns - gonna be a nutter government

No breaks on the barrel scraping lame duck boris administration it seems

I suspect it will be a BRINO administration, but time will tell.

Isn't the whole point of this to cast grave doubt on Johnson's ability to command a majority in the Commons?

We probably only need two Tory MPs to resign the whip now.

"You could end up running the MoD at this rate dux"

No ta, the lovely Penny's doing a pretty fine job.

Dux, Boris is going to be the last Tory PM for quite a long while.

Tomorrow it’s Boris day right? That’s going to be one HELLUVA cabinet 

dux - is bojo not brexiter enough? Come on who do ya want? Even Rees mogg backs Boris 

I do quite r8 Rees Mogg but he flip-flopped on May's deal. We need some real Brexiteers in the cabinet, e.g. Anne Marie Morris.

Dux, the man who will be prime minister tomorrow is threatening to take us out with no deal. What more do you want?

You could say that about literally any candidate. You could also say that not a single one of the Brexiters has honoured any of the multitudinous and mutually incompatible promises they made before the referendum.

It's almost like Brexit is just some bullshit on a stick.

"You could say that about literally any candidate"

Yes, but almost any would be more trustworthy than this fellow.

They are all completely untrustworthy, Dux.

*fantasises about Designated Survivor*

There was something in the news on the weekend from David Davis saying he was "in talks" with Boris Johnson and had told him he would only accept Foreign Sec or Chancellor, nothing less.

 

David Davis as Chancellor or Foreign Secretary.

Consider.

We are fucked.

Don't worry, the Boris government won't last five minutes.

Obviously jumped before he was pushed, given his comments about working with BJ at the FO.

 

Totally agree.  

Going to make a weird prediction now....

Phil Hammond will be Prime Minister this time next year.

Is no one else surprised that IDS has not been mentioned here yet...?

Heh as if the Tories with their working majority of three (soon to be two) will survive a Johnson premiership.

What is your sequence of events Tecco to get you to spreadsheet Phil?

Listened to the Jacob R-M show on LBC as I was driving. Totally insincere and fake persona. Oddball. It's sad that political power in this county is so easily achievable for such people.

Hammond is one of the few sane senior tories and he won't have anything to do with Johnson. Agree with mutters re Davis; I heard that and just thought wtaf.  

I love how easy it is for Tories to rehabilitate themselves. All you need to do is say something nasty about the bien pensants' bete noir du jour and all of a sudden you are a great statesman whose loss we will all keenly feel.

Everything is relative. I still wouldn't vote for him, which is what really matters.

So if enough MPs defect such that Tories + DUP no longer constitute a majority, what happens?

A General Election in which they lose their seats. So they won't do it. Fantasy.

corbyn will be pm unless boris gets brexit over the line by end of the year , latest

I know some of you think a corbyn govt with no brexit is preferable

Probably is to be fair. At least you can get rid of him after 5 years.

Philip Hammond is an absolute snake. Completely untrustworthy. He broke two key election manifesto promises 1) not to increase national insurance contributions and 2) to continue to eliminate the public deficit.

 

He is also completely unelectable in this country because of the impact of the universal credit rollout since his appointment as chancellor

Kimmy, how would they hold them? Why should a local LibDem candidate (they nearly always are local) who has put in the legwork stand aside to let a chicken-running Tory take their candidacy?

What happens?

Fourteen days for someone (Jeremy C presumably) to win a vote of confidence.

25th July House rises for Summer recess.

3rd September House returns from summer recess.

21st to 25th September Labour Party conference.

29th September to 2nd October Conservative Party Conference

Thursday 3rd October Jeremy presents his programme to the House.

Friday 4th October Jeremy loses vote of no confidence

Leader of Conservatives gets fourteen days to win a vote of confidence. Fails

PM (could still be Teresa if enough resignations happen before Wednesday!) calls for a General Election on Thursday 28th November.  

On Thursday 31st October a motion is put to revoke Art. 50.  Filibustered out

If TMPM called a general election for 28 November parliament would be dissolved by 31 October. 

Good good. If Brexit is going to happen, I want it to be as much of an absolute disaster as possible, a political Chernobyl, to teach everyone a bloody good lesson; and the more freaks from the mutant nutbar wing of the Tory Party there are grunting and playing with themselves on the deck while the ship goes down, the better, so as to destroy the party. Let’s have Mark Francois as foreign secretary and Leadsom as Chancellor please.

It would be fucking hilarious if the Maybot called a GE, but I doubt even she is actually that spiteful

There is no effective filibuster in the UK Parliament, especially not with Bercow in the hot seat. We are not Americans.

It would be fucking hilarious if the Maybot called a GE, but I doubt even she is actually that spiteful

She doesn't have the power to do so under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act.

There’s a significant risk that the result of a GE would be to give Boris a sizeable working majority. It would all come down to which of the Remainer and Brexit votes was split and which was united. V hard to call. I agree it would be funny in a champs-throwing-shit way.

Leadsom at Foreign office just to see her trying to talk normally to the Chinese or Mexicans

Francois at Home Office so his gammony talons can sort out any civil distress 

alan Duncan is and always has been a pompous ass by the way.  wouldn't want a beer with him

I love the way people think it’s all the EU’s fault for not just rolling over and saying “OK then, have absolutely everything you want”.

Pridemouth, it depends on the majority in each constituency - many people will vote tory whoever is standing. 

Diceman - he is however relatively believable as a human being, unlike most of the retrograde freaks that you guys generally select for Parliament.

Kimmy, how would they hold them? Why should a local LibDem candidate (they nearly always are local) who has put in the legwork stand aside to let a chicken-running Tory take their candidacy?

What, like the Lib Dem candidate refused to step aside for Umunna?  Oh, wait.

The LDs would just pick the most electable candidate, whether its their prospective candidate or the defector.

 

 

Ids and Davis have been keeping quiet so as to be part of a bojo cabinet 

It’s funny how IDS in the public eye travelled the journey from irrelevant extremist gimpazoid with no personality, to reasonable and thoughtful bloke who’d probably been misunderstood, to worryingly relevant extremist gimpzoid with no personality. The Sajid Javid who actually believes in something.

ideMonth22 Jul 19 11:12

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I love how easy it is for Tories to rehabilitate themselves.

u say that, but to paraphrase a not so great man, rehabilitating the tozzas is a bit like renovating an old, old house, you can take out a sexist beam here, a callous window there, replace the odd homophobic roof tile. but after a while you realise that this renovation is doomed. cos the foundations are built on what I can only describe as a solid bed of cunts.

I know some of you think a corbyn govt with no brexit is preferable

Absolutely.

Brexit is for life, Corbyn is probably just for Christmas.

If Brexit doesn't work then it will be all the fault of Remainers who have undermined the process from the beginning and refused to accept the result, plus the EU which has deliberately tried to sabotage the process and won't give us a good deal.

We'll be forced to go out without a deal for a transition period but mark my words the deals we will do with the rest of the world - such deals as have never been seen.

And the Commonwealth countries are crying out for leadership.  We can take that role and stand proud in the world once more.

Frankly it's no wonder China and the USA are scared of us right now.  They know what's coming.

Heh! Very good.

JRM won't go near a ministerial position because he'd have to disclose his financial position, and if there's one thing that khunt loves more than forcing poor people to use foodbanks, it's his money.

Im not at all sure what this amounts to, but, if GE:

The 80% of all MP’s who stood on a ticket to respect the referendum result in 2017 are presumably vulnerable to losing their seats.

Although then take away those who have since voted in such a way so as to NOT frustrate Brexit.

Must still leave an awful lot of MPs who will get chucked.

it will take someone with a spreadsheet of voting patterns to sort out what could happen.

The 80% of all MP’s who stood on a ticket to respect the referendum result in 2017 are presumably vulnerable to losing their seats.

Why?

You're not seriously suggesting that 80% of voters want to leave the EU, are you?

What about the millions of remainers who grudgingly voted Labour to keep the Tories out and are fucking pissed off at being told they voted for a pro Brexit party in 2017 so they must support Brexit now? For those people I imagine only the very remainiest kind of Labour MP would stand a chance of getting their vote again.

80% of MPs elected having said they would “respect” Brexit is not the same thing as saying 80% of voters want Brexit.

ofc not.

mps voted (as a group) for article 50 and have since gone on to frustrate all brexit “solutions” , there is a disconnect there!

The 80% of all MP’s who stood on a ticket to respect the referendum result in 2017 are presumably vulnerable to losing their seats.

What about the 48% of MPs who stood on a ticket to repeal the FTPA and have reneged on that promise? Are they vulnerable too?

Look, all I mean is:

pre referendum, the main parties were all Remain as official line.

referendum - electorate came out for Leave

post referendum - MPs say they must respect ref and vote for Art 50

2017 GE - both main parties now saying they support Brexit ( cos in line with ref) and get huge numbers of votes (incl from Remainers, obv). The main Remain party, Lib Dems, dont get much uplift.

post 2017 GE - MPs go on to throw out all brexit possibilities

2019 - electorate feels MPs have broken their promise to support Brexit, leading to....next GE .?.?.

 

I’m not saying I agree with any of what has happened, just pointing out that MPs not reflecting what the electorate wants them to do, which is hardly news is it, with anyone and everyone complaining that Parliament full of lying conniving d1cks.

80% of MPs elected having said they would “respect” Brexit is not the same thing as saying 80% of voters want Brexit.

Right, but some of the people who voted for those MPs would be more happy about voting for them if they said they didn't respect Brexit and fully intended to do everything in their power to frustrate it.

This 80% figure is meaningless. Labour MPs in strongly remain consitituencies are clearly far more in danger of losing their seats if they continue with this "will of the people" nonsense instead of saying "Brexit is a shit idea an d must be stopped".

mps voted (as a group) for article 50 and have since gone on to frustrate all brexit “solutions” , there is a disconnect there!

You say that as if anyone has come up with a viable Brexit solution. Maybe they are just realists who can see that there isn't one and it's time otherwise intelligent people stopped pretending there is.

Minkie you're wasting your time trying to discuss this with penelope

Why, because I like to point out the inconvenient truth that this "80% of people voted for a pro Brexit party" shit is unadulterated nonsense?

I’m with Anna on this.  Why do people try to avoid simple facts?

Of course a Corbyn government with no brexir is preferable. How stupid would you have to be to think otherwise?

What LP said about the 80% thing being stupid.

But what "a human being who is definitely not Laz" said at 12:03.  The actual GE results and impact for an individual MP of being remain / leave ish in the run up to it is incredibly hard to pick in advance.  Sentiment could be going in any direction by then and it doesn't really matter if your Labour area was mostly Remain.

You could easily see a situation where the Brexity Labour people decide to go with Farage, a big chunk of Labour Remains go with the Lib Dems (as Corbyn will probably still be pro-Brexit) and the Tory Remainers (and Brexiters) hold their noses and vote Tory to keep Corbyn out.  If Tories were the second place you could see some big swings to them even in a Remain seat if sentiment goes the right way for them.

Equally it could go the other way or you could see a resurgence in the Lib Dems - but I think there is a really unpredictable element to it.

What do you reckon his Cabinet is going to look like. I saw him being inteviwed by Andrew Neil, ( worth a watch) it was an absolute car crash of monumental proportions, and to think he will be PM.

He refused to say how many women would hold senior cabinet positions and had no idea how many held senior positions when he was Mayor

Can I add a "heh" at Duncan being told to fuck off by the Speaker with his attempt to no-conf Boris tomorrow.

"Hardly, one would have thought, desireable outcomes for brexit believers or those who call themselves patriots."

Actually I can see us being forced to grovel back for re-entry and take the Euro being quite good for us in the long term.  Yes there would be some direct harm and loss of face - but a much greater chance of us properly getting on board with the EU project rather than continuing to grump along like a sullen teenager on a family day trip.

Arbiter re-entry ain't gonna happen, who would facilitate that?

I’m not saying I agree with any of what has happened, just pointing out that MPs not reflecting what the electorate wants them to do, which is hardly news is it, with anyone and everyone complaining that Parliament full of lying conniving d1cks.

One person's "lying conniving dick" is another's sensible, responsible, putting-the-country-first MP.

It's the same with people saying Parliament is no longer fit for purpose because of the current grid-lock. It's not; it's working perfectly because it is preventing a populist government implementing an ideologically-driven policy which will seriously adversely affect the country.  

@HBH - Oh that ones a complete shit show - my point is just that the second outcome is arguably better (really) long term than if we just bin Brexit now. 

If the MPs engineer a revocation now (or if we BRINO) I think we're still going to be in as a fairly powerful but somewhat reluctant participant in the EU project.  If we left, it turned to shit and we begged to be back in - arguably we might be a bit more committed to things long term.

@ebitda - the LibDem coalition in 202? after we've been through a horrific recession and everyone is begging to get back in bed with the EU a la our original entry into back in Thatcher's days.

ebitda22 Jul 19 15:30

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Arbiter re-entry ain't gonna happen, who would facilitate that?

 

There would be no bigger shot in the arm for the EU than a much chastened UK begging to be let back to the table. It would pull the rug from the populists throughout the member states.

But wouldn't the boost come from us begging to be let back in? They would still get the benefit of that without actually having to let us rejoin.

Alan Duncan is the one who went to Matthew Elliott of the Vote Leave campaign offering to be their chairman, only to become a Remainer when he was rebuffed.

Can't see why everyone thinks his resignation is a loss to public life.

Lady Penelope22 Jul 19 15:48

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But wouldn't the boost come from us begging to be let back in? They would still get the benefit of that without actually having to let us rejoin.

 

Not as big a boost as actually re-joining though. The EU have openly admitted that they want the UK to remain as a MS. They know having the UK involved makes the EU stronger.

Anonymous22 Jul 19 16:03

Alan Duncan is the one who went to Matthew Elliott of the Vote Leave campaign offering to be their chairman, only to become a Remainer when he was rebuffed.

Can't see why everyone thinks his resignation is a loss to public life.

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Its not a loss, something of a surprise how many of the (admittedly bar is low) borderline competents are fleeing the good ship Boris 

Re-entry absolutely is going to happen, the next time a lib dem or centre-left labour party wins a GE.If not re-entry then EFTA entry which is virtually the same thing.

Not as big a boost as actually re-joining though. The EU have openly admitted that they want the UK to remain as a MS. They know having the UK involved makes the EU stronger.

But we were a massive pain in the arse for 40+ years, and post Brexit we will be severely weakened and have less to bring to the table.

Re-entry absolutely is going to happen, the next time a lib dem or centre-left labour party wins a GE.If not re-entry then EFTA entry which is virtually the same thing.

With respect, it's got fuck all to do with who is in power in the UK, and more to do with whether one or more member states is minded to say "non". No prizes for guessing who my money's on.

Laz, I know you've been away, but FYI we don't have a centre-left labour party.