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Mr Hargreaves
Posted - 20 April 2017 16:14
Agreed but it will take longer than 5 rounds imo
homo heidelberwangsis
Posted - 20 April 2017 16:17
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That was exactly my call on the thread earlier. Also Klitsch has been out for a LONG time
Hotblack Desiato
Posted - 20 April 2017 16:27
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Hargreaves my only reason for positing 5 rounds is that all Joshua has to do is land one decent right and Klitschko will be visibly rattled (and at 41 just wont be able to recover). I see that happening within 3 rounds and thereafter it is only a matter of time before Joshua finishes him off - given his skill I would allow Klitschko up to round 5 before the inevitable
old git roundabout
Posted - 20 April 2017 17:44
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Klitschko will tread on his toe. Worked against Haye
Force me Jaw
Posted - 20 April 2017 20:34
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Firstly fair play to Joshua for taking this fight. He didn't have to, not in his 19th fight, and although Klitschko was beaten by Fury, I don't consider him to be a spent force. Thanks to Fury as well, because without him beating Klitschko, Joshua would never have become the IBF champion.

Klitschko sees this as a defining fight, and is putting maximum effort in. He was also mentally bamboozled by Fury before fight. He also did not have the spongy ring that he had favoured for a number of his fights. However, he has kept himself in excellent physical condition and has not been in the sort of wars that many heavyweights have been in.

This is a big step up for Joshua. A number of his recent fights have been walk overs, Molina and Charles "I walk the earth as a God" Martin, for the title. I would like him to have has a fight with the likes of Kubrat Pulev, before fighting Klitschko.

I take AJ to win, by knock out.

It will be at the start a battle of the jabs. Klitschko can't hold back like he did against Fury, because otherwise he is getting knocked out early. AJ showed after he received that punch from Whyte, a lack of head movement. He can't do that against Klitschko otherwise he is in trouble.
Hotblack Desiato
Posted - 21 April 2017 13:21
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"Klitschko can't hold back like he did against Fury, because otherwise he is getting knocked out early."

A good point. I watched a Sky programme on Klitschko last night which included footage of his previous knockouts/knockdowns.

I had not appreciated that he had got knocked down 3 times by Samuel Peter before going on to beat him.

Thinking about Klitschko's recent fights, I think that the reliance on the jab and the clinch and lean is his solution to his weak chin - by barely throwing his right until his opponent is worn down by jabs/leaning he minimises exposing his chin until his opponent is no longer in a condition to knock him out.

But as you rightly said that strategy is not going to work against Joshua. Klitschko's jab alone is not going to keep Joshua off him and he won't be able to wrap up and lean on Joshua because they are basically the same height and reach but Joshua is stronger. To keep Joshua at bay he is going to have to throw his right a lot more often, but if he does, he is exposing himself.

"AJ showed after he received that punch from Whyte, a lack of head movement." I agree with that comment, but having rewatched the Joshua/Whyte fight last night I would make the following observations:

- The lack of head movement was most pronounced in rounds 2 and 3 after he had got chinned by the uppercut. I think it reflects a lack of experience of what to do when you have been clocked one (because this has almost never happened to him) rather than an inability to move his head at all as from round 4 onwards he was moving much better.

- Everyone talks up the "Joshua getting wobbled by Whyte" because it is the only time in any of his fights that he has been in any sort of difficulty whatsoever. By comparison to what other heavyweights fight their way through it was nothing and most heavyweights in an evenly matched fight (or against a superior opponent) will have at least one such period which they have to spend in survival mode after being clocked one. If you look at Klitchsko v Fury, there are periods in that fight towards the end when both Klitschko and Fury are clearly in temporary difficulties after a big punch but no-one says on the basis of that that they are both "chinny" fighters (people might say that Klitschko is "chinny" but that is based on his knockout defeats and the three knockdowns he took against Samuel Peter)

To be honest it reminds me of the first Bruno v Tyson fight if only of the difference in reaction. During that fight Bruno wobbled Tyson (possibly for the first time in Tyson's pro career). However because the AJ "wobble" came earlier in his career (before he was a world champion) but at a time when there was a lot of as-yet-unsubstantiated hype about him, it is seen less a complement to Whyte than as grounds to doubt the hype. Whereas with Tyson by the time Bruno hit him one everyone knew that Tyson was the real thing, and therefore it was regarded more as "exactly the sort of thing that happens to heavyweights from time to time and well done Frank" rather than "proof that the emperor has no clothes because he got wobbled by Frank Bruno"
Force me Jaw
Posted - 28 April 2017 09:34
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That punch that Bruno threw and wobbled Tyson was a peach. But Tyson took that punch.

Klitschko has probably more knock-out power in one punch than Joshua has, but Joshua is great at combination punches. I expect both to land punches and it will come down to who can take the punch. Klitschko has showed a weak chin before. I don't regard Joshua as having been in any serious difficulty in the Whyte fight from that punch in the second round, but there are plenty of rumours of Joshua being knocked out in sparring. Some have talked about Joshua being knocked out, David Price, but other sparring partners have refused. That's a concern.

I expect the fight to be a chess match for the first couple of rounds.

I don't know who the referee is for this and whether Klitschko will try to clinch. I accept that this will be difficult for him because Joshua is his size, although he did try it with Fury, but it didn't go that well.

The Klitschko camp are talking a good game. They are looking confident, which is exactly what they weren't in facing Fury.

I remain with Joshua for the knock-out.
BST
Posted - 28 April 2017 10:11
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Referee is David Fields, from what I know of him his reputation is that he lets a bit more go/is a little more lenient than some of the other top referees. Judges two from the US, one from Puerto Rico.

Presume as he seems to have been doing a lot of roadwork and stamina work that Klitschko's plan is to outjab AJ and win it on points or late stoppage. I am not concerned about AJ's chin any more than I would be about Klitschko's. Neither are bulletproof I suspect if hit clean. Might be a little more concerned about AJ's durability/stamina if it went all the way, as he hasn't been deep with a top level fighter.

But ultimately 18 months as said upthread is a long time out at 41. Joshua is strong, has good reach and is likely to be faster around the ring as well.

I think it's a closer fight than the betting odds suggest, and Klit at 9-4 may be the betting value but am also in the AJ to win by stoppage, middle rounds, camp here.
Force me Jaw
Posted - 30 April 2017 10:14
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This is the thread on which we called it!
Saracens1876
Posted - 30 April 2017 10:24
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You did. Bookie mate said a ginger bloke went 10 large on Klitschko win by KO in round 2.
homo heidelberwangsis
Posted - 30 April 2017 10:45
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What a fight eh? Hope they dont rematch, Vlad should walk into the sunset now
Osama
Posted - 30 April 2017 10:47
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Vlad the Impala