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Main Discussion

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Keef_
Posted - 20 April 2017 10:20
Working majority of 17, so 9 seats.

ReggiePerrin is voting Lib Dem
Posted - 20 April 2017 10:21
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Don't forget the DUP. The lunatic loyalist fringe support May's administration.
Brad's big donger
Posted - 20 April 2017 10:23
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Dont forget mark reckless will be replaced by a tory
Keef_
Posted - 20 April 2017 10:25
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150 Sleeps To Christmas
Posted - 20 April 2017 10:25
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Brad's big donger
Posted - 20 April 2017 10:23 Report as offensive Report Offensive
Dont forget mark reckless will be replaced by a tory

--

Not an MP.
BST
Posted - 20 April 2017 10:29
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It's quite possible the Tories will lose 9 seats, and maybe more, to the Lib Dems, who I think will do pretty well.

However they will be more than offset, putting it mildly, by the seats they gain from Labour.
150 Sleeps To Christmas
Posted - 20 April 2017 10:30
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Some thought they may triple their representation north of the border too.

I think they'll only double it.
Back to Cyprian :)
Posted - 20 April 2017 10:30
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I met Mark Reckless's brother some years back. had no idea who he was, ran out of common ground in about 20 seconds.
The harbinger of sanity
Posted - 20 April 2017 10:31
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I am not as convinced as many on the imminent implosion of UKIP unfortunately - there are still an awful lot of working class traditional labour voters who are strongly brexit and dislike Corbyn who will not be able to bring themselves to vote Tory. This holds especially true if Farage makes yet another return, as seems likely.
Barnsbury
Posted - 20 April 2017 10:36
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It's just as likely those UKIP voters won't vote at all. not sure who that benefits tho.
BST
Posted - 20 April 2017 10:52
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Tend to agree Hank but see that as splitting the vote and letting in the Tories in quite a lot of WWC seats in the North/Yorks/Midlands/Wales, rather than it leading to UKIP themselves winning any seats.

Those sort of people you and Barnsbury both refer to will not vote for Labour under Corbyn for certain, but will split between many not voting, staying with UKIP or some voting Tory. It benefits the Tories in my view, no question at all.
pancake humper
Posted - 20 April 2017 10:57
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The Times poll today has 53% of 2015 UKIP voters deserting the party, with 42 out of 53 planning to vote Tory.
Brad's big donger
Posted - 20 April 2017 11:03
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Sorry i meant carswell, not reckless.

There were plenty of people on the news last night who have 'voted labour all my life' that thought theresa may is doing a good job and were going to vote for her party rather than corbyn's.
Brad's big donger
Posted - 20 April 2017 11:05
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That makes sense pancake. The only way those 4 million can guarantee uk independence nkw is to vote tory.
Barnsbury
Posted - 20 April 2017 11:08
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If the UKIP deserters vote then I agree they will vote Tory and that will help Theresa May. 3.8m people voted UKIP last time so that could help her a lot.

If they don't vote then that is potentially a big problem for her. There are lots of Labour voters who won't support Corbyn but would never dream of voting conservative. They might vote LibDem tho. If that happens, the Tories may find their majority goes up a bit but not hugely, and many of Labour's lost seats end up LibDem. So the PM is roughly where she was before but with a resurgent LibDem party on a staunch "soft Brexit" platform, and a common cause (on that issue at least) with Nats. That doesn't help her achieve any of the aims she set out on Tuesday.
Brad's big donger
Posted - 20 April 2017 11:12
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Given those votes only won seat last time then them nkt turning iut will have no effect at all on the result.
Barnsbury
Posted - 20 April 2017 11:18
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not necessarily true.

take the City of Chester constituency.

Labour got 22,118.
Con got 22,025
UKIP got 1,225.

So UKIP were nowhere remotely close to being elected, yet those voters in theory hold the balance of power.
Brad's big donger
Posted - 20 April 2017 12:17
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You are saying they wont vote at all. They therefore won't have any impact in the City of Chester
BST
Posted - 20 April 2017 12:23
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Chester (I was born/used to live there) is very much the exception though in the North/Midlands/Wales/Yorkshire areas in having such a low 2015 UKIP vote.

I don't think you can build a theory around such an outlier seat. The other factor which may be more relevant in some places, Chester being a good example, is that the LD's did very badly in 2015. Would have to check the figures but think they got under 10%, maybe nearer 5%. They are likely to do quite a lot better this time. In those Northern/Midlands WWC type seats they will pick up more votes from Labour than the Tories.

However in the South (including SW) and London I would think the LD's may pick up more votes from the Tories than Labour.
Brad's big donger
Posted - 20 April 2017 13:17
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Are you trying to make Reggie feel more intelligent with that post Darcy?
Barnsbury
Posted - 20 April 2017 13:43
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what I said about the UKIP voters is I have no idea what they are going to do, i don't know whether they will vote at all. the one thing I am confident of is that they won't vote UKIP again (no one's that stupid).

City of Chester is just one example of a constituency where the sitting MP's majority is substantially less than the number of votes won last time around by UKIP. Those UKIP voters at the very least inject a substantial dose of uncertainty into the whole thing
rogermellie
Posted - 20 April 2017 14:08
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This is going to be BRILLIANT
#landslide