The Bar Standards Board has just released its 2011 "Bar Barometer", a statistical trawl through the profession. As expected, it's a thrilling, white-knuckle ride.
Here's where you can
download the thing yourself. Let me know your views in the comments below, or tweet me
@FrankAtRoF. Having had a quick trawl through, here are some unfocused and largely incoherent thoughts.
The sheer volume of LPC graduates being churned out,
and dumped on the scrapheap created by the worst market for legal
employment in a generation is pretty shocking. Yet the sheer scale of wastage amongst Bar school graduates is
probably even worse.
In 2010/11, there were 446 first six pupillages. The number goes down every year. 1,618 students enrolled on the course. Even assuming a conservative pass rate - say 80% - that means 1,294 successful BPTC hit the market. Something like a quarter of those graduates will head overseas to their home jurisdictions, so let's assume about 1,000 people, fighting for just under half as many jobs. Doesn't sound too bad, really - until you consider that this over-supply has existed for many years, and those "
called to the Bar" (a title which comes free with every BPTC certificate) can apply for pupillage for five years after graduation. Extrapolating from the past five years, I reckon there are perhaps 4,000 barristers without pupillage applying for the same dwindling number of jobs. Suddenly a 44% chance has become an 11% chance.
Yet the most extraordinary statistic is that despite dire warnings, the
almost complete lack of jobs, the almost unbelievable expense of the BPTC and (like
its sister course, the LPC) the almost complete lack of worth of the
course unless one achieves pupillage, applications to Bar school have
actually
gone up. 3,100 people filled out the application form. 3,100 is a crazy number.
At last, however, it seems the law schools have noticed that almost everyone they educate is singularly failing to put their expensive knowledge to use. As much as applicants have gone up, at least the number accepted has dropped. Of those 3,100 applicants, 1,482 didn't get a place (despite the official base requirement being a 2:2). Efforts to
introduce an aptitude test are clearly (finally) coming to fruition, and it is to
be hoped that more will follow the notable (and notably successful)
example of Kaplan, which operates a rather more rigorous application
process than its rivals.
"Christmas, you say? Yes please".
And it's fitting that bar schools are rigorous about admissions, as academics continue to be the key arbiter of success. 23.5% of pupils achieved a first class undergraduate degree - and only 10% of BPTC students. Take a peek at some of the CVs of pupils at top London chambers - the levels of achievement are terrifying. The majority of pupils - 52.8% - get a 2:1. But there's some hope for the lower-achievers: 8.5% of pupils (that's 39 individuals) had a 2:2. Yet those 39 came from a group of 361 desmonds undertaking the course. Get a first - and your chances of pupillage are more than doubled. A 2:2, and you're already putting yourself at an enormous disadvantage.
Roguely, two pupils had a sportsman's third. Yet if you're encouraged by that statistic, take a moment to consider that almost all of those 41 people who achieved pupillage without a 2:2 or lower will be on their second career. The Bar remains closed to those without a good degree, or a remarkable - and likely highly-specialised and relevant - career history.
And whilst it doesn't matter what you study at undergrad level (51% of pupils did law), choice of university remains key. Oxbridge alone counts for nearly a quarter of pupils. The usual suspects then predominate - 4.1% graduate from UCL, and collectively Sheffield, Durham, Manchester, Newcastle, KCL, Nottingham, Birmingham, Edinburgh, St Andrews, Leeds and York make up another 21.5%. So that's over half of pupils attending what I've (largely arbitrarily) classed as traditional academic universities. There are notable successes from other less prestigious institutions - Manchester Met and Leeds Met together produced 1.8% of new pupils, and UWE alone 2%.
There is some more positive news. Overall, the number of barristers in
practice (that's in chambers or at the employed bar) has risen by a
massive 117, or 0.8%. And as with the soliciting side of law, there's an
increasing female demographic at the junior end. Although 84.2% of QCs
are male, 53% of BPTC students and 48% of pupils are female (as are 44%
of those gaining tenancy). The gender imbalance at the top will surely eventually be righted.
So where do we go now? Is the law school racket sustainable? How do we promote social diversity within the profession when the hurdles for entry are set so very high (and the early years of practice are so parlous)? Is it fair to bring in entrance requirements for vocational training which more accurately mirror those insisted upon by chambers? Does anyone have the answers? Tell me, please.
A final stat: if ever one needed a reminder that the Bar is painfully middle class - just consider the 19.3% of pupils who have absolutely no student debt. Not a single penny. Course fees this year in London are about £16,000.